Above the 10d
Apple earnings last week helped the market rally along with the jobs report and now each of the major indices is above the 10d with bullish MACD (curling up).. However, MACD has not crossed positive and that would be the next step to enter a confirmed uptrend. The April inflation data may cause some volatility if it comes in hot - or cause a big boost if we see signs of inflation cooling. Tough to call so not a week to be super aggressive in either direction
If we can get some sideways action or continue to get a green day or two we should have MACD cross soon. The key is to participate in uptrends and look for stocks that are also in uptrends or about to enter uptrends..
QQQ
QQQs were really strong on Friday and had its highest close since August. The bull case is that we are seeing the end of rate hikes and the strong employment market and recent earnings appear to point to a soft landing (or better).. However, Friday might have also been quite a bit of short covering since the market was leaning bearish heading into Apple earnings and the jobless claims.
However, if we can get a positive MACD cross then we will be back in uptrend for the first time since early April. Continue to watch closing prices. Market could surprise to the upside so keep an open mind - but wait for price confirmation.
SPY
SPY also had a strong Friday close, but is not yet above recent highs.. MACD is flat and needs a little more work to get into uptrend. Opening green..
DOW
Barely back above the 10d and flat MACD.. still work to do on the DOW. In fact, with a weak close will be right back in downtrend.
IWM
With a sideways or up day we may get the MACD cross on IWM today. The Russell has been smacked given it’s exposure to regional banks - need to see if we get continued weakness in regional banking sector. However, if we are beginning to put those issues behind us then we will see it in IWM pretty quickly
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is still officially in downtrend. Really needs to hold recent lows around $27,000. It has largely been trading sideways since mid-March but needs to get above $29,555 before showing some momentum.
